Has Home Price Growth Slowed Down?

Yes, home price growth slowed down. Here's why that may be changing...

If you've been following the headlines for the past year or two, you've probably heard some version of the same story: home price growth is cooling off, and some corners of the internet have even predicted a full-on crash. But the newest data tells a more interesting story. Price growth may be starting to pick back up again - and depending on whether you're buying or selling here in Austin, that shift means something different for you.

The Numbers May Be Starting to Turn

For the past couple of years, home price growth has been moderating - cooling from around 7% annual growth in mid-2024, according to Redfin. But the most recent data suggests that pace may have hit its low point and started to turn back upward.

A couple of months of data doesn't guarantee a lasting trend, but there are other signs pointing the same direction. Fewer markets are seeing prices decline. According to research from Zillow, about 36% of the 300 largest housing markets had falling prices as of the middle of last year. That share has been shrinking steadily since the start of this year, and now only about 23% of those markets are experiencing mild price dips.

When fewer markets are seeing prices fall, more of them are seeing prices rise. Forecasters expect this shift to have room to run: on average, experts project home prices will rise roughly 2.3% nationally this year, which would mean price growth picking up a bit further in the second half of 2026.

But Remember, Real Estate Is Local

Here's the thing about national numbers: they're really just an average of hundreds of local markets. Some are climbing faster. Others are still cooling. One reason the national average may be trending upward is that a growing number of metro areas are turning net positive for prices this year.

Not long ago, major metros were split roughly 50/50 - half seeing prices rise, half seeing them fall. That balance appears to be tipping in a more positive direction. Just last month, more than half of major metros saw prices increase, according to Redfin.

Local markets continue to tell very different stories. That's why I always encourage my clients to look past the national headlines. Mueller and the surrounding East Austin neighborhoods have their own rhythm, and understanding what's happening block by block is the only way to make a confident decision.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Mueller and Austin

If You're Buying

Slower price growth over the past couple of years has worked in your favor. You've had more room to negotiate and a clearer budget to plan around. If price growth is starting to pick up in our area, buying sooner rather than later could mean paying less than you would later this year. I recently walked through how buyers and sellers are navigating this exact dynamic in my post on Paying For Your Buyer's Closing Costs?, which is worth a read if you're weighing an offer right now.

If You Own a Home

You've been building equity all along, even while growth moderated. If growth keeps picking up, those gains could accelerate. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), projects the typical homeowner will gain roughly $16,000 in housing wealth this year. If you've been thinking about selling, this shift is an encouraging early sign - though it's worth remembering the market is still fairly balanced and buyer-friendly in a lot of areas right now.

Stay Ahead of the Market

Home price headlines can be confusing because they rarely tell the full picture. That's exactly why I put together monthly breakdowns of what's actually happening here in Mueller - you can catch the latest in my June 2026 Mueller Market Update or browse the full archive on my Real Estate Market Updates playlist on YouTube.

Home price growth slowed way down, and now it's showing early signs of picking back up. Whether you're buying or selling, let's connect so you can see exactly what prices are doing in the Mueller market and what that means for your plans.